NFL Public Betting Trends
Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends – bet percentages and money percentages – is vital to making intelligent sports wagers. This is the place you’ll find these trends each week for the 2023-24 NFL season. We will also be tracking how the public’s picks do all season—you can see how they fared last year against the spread below.
NFL Betting Trends for Preseason Week 2
Filter
Matchup | spread | $$ | Money % | Bet % | spread | Money % | Bet % | moneyline | Money % | Bet % | total | Money % | Bet % |
·@ 7:30 EDT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland CLE @ | -- | 37% | 48% | -- | 37% | 48% | -- | 4% | 10% | -- | 85% | 92% |
Philadelphia PHI | -- | 63% | 52% | -- | 63% | 52% | -- | 96% | 90% | -- | 15% | 8% |
·@ 7:30 EDT | ||||||||||||
Carolina CAR @ | -- | 78% | 48% | -- | 78% | 48% | -- | 14% | 10% | -- | 76% | 79% |
NY Giants NYG | -- | 22% | 52% | -- | 22% | 52% | -- | 86% | 90% | -- | 24% | 21% |
Cincinnati CIN @ | -- | 65% | 59% | -- | 65% | 59% | -- | 1% | 9% | -- | 92% | 93% |
Atlanta ATL | -- | 35% | 41% | -- | 35% | 41% | -- | 99% | 91% | -- | 8% | 7% |
Jacksonville JAC @ | -- | 77% | 83% | -- | 77% | 83% | -- | 59% | 69% | -- | 90% | 88% |
Detroit DET | -- | 23% | 17% | -- | 23% | 17% | -- | 41% | 31% | -- | 10% | 12% |
Miami MIA @ | -- | 74% | 50% | -- | 74% | 50% | -- | 96% | 15% | -- | 85% | 89% |
Houston HOU | -- | 26% | 50% | -- | 26% | 50% | -- | 4% | 85% | -- | 15% | 11% |
Buffalo BUF @ | -- | 46% | 44% | -- | 46% | 44% | -- | 38% | 21% | -- | 96% | 92% |
Pittsburgh PIT | -- | 54% | 56% | -- | 54% | 56% | -- | 62% | 79% | -- | 4% | 8% |
Chicago CHI @ | -- | 21% | 21% | -- | 21% | 21% | -- | 27% | 10% | -- | 92% | 88% |
Indianapolis IND | -- | 79% | 79% | -- | 79% | 79% | -- | 73% | 90% | -- | 8% | 12% |
Tampa Bay TB @ | -- | 28% | 38% | -- | 28% | 38% | -- | 11% | 20% | -- | 97% | 94% |
NY Jets NYJ | -- | 72% | 63% | -- | 72% | 63% | -- | 89% | 80% | -- | 3% | 6% |
Kansas City KC @ | -- | 86% | 47% | -- | 86% | 47% | -- | 80% | 96% | -- | 97% | 93% |
Arizona ARI | -- | 14% | 53% | -- | 14% | 53% | -- | 20% | 4% | -- | 3% | 7% |
New England NE @ | -- | 78% | 56% | -- | 78% | 56% | -- | 58% | 29% | -- | 96% | 94% |
Green Bay GB | -- | 22% | 44% | -- | 22% | 44% | -- | 42% | 71% | -- | 4% | 6% |
Tennessee TEN @ | -- | 46% | 33% | -- | 46% | 33% | -- | 60% | 69% | -- | 85% | 92% |
Minnesota MIN | -- | 54% | 67% | -- | 54% | 67% | -- | 40% | 31% | -- | 15% | 8% |
Denver DEN @ | -- | 66% | 44% | -- | 66% | 44% | -- | 82% | 85% | -- | 93% | 89% |
San Francisco SF | -- | 34% | 56% | -- | 34% | 56% | -- | 18% | 15% | -- | 7% | 11% |
Las Vegas LV @ | -- | 47% | 50% | -- | 47% | 50% | -- | 58% | 81% | -- | 88% | 91% |
LA Rams LAR | -- | 53% | 50% | -- | 53% | 50% | -- | 42% | 19% | -- | 12% | 9% |
Dallas DAL @ | -- | 67% | 55% | -- | 67% | 55% | -- | 49% | 14% | -- | 83% | 91% |
Seattle SEA | -- | 33% | 45% | -- | 33% | 45% | -- | 51% | 86% | -- | 17% | 9% |
New Orleans NO @ | -- | 38% | 50% | -- | 38% | 50% | -- | 82% | 83% | -- | 97% | 95% |
LA Chargers LAC | -- | 62% | 50% | -- | 62% | 50% | -- | 18% | 17% | -- | 3% | 5% |
Baltimore BAL @ | -- | 69% | 63% | -- | 69% | 63% | -- | 15% | 72% | -- | 90% | 88% |
Washington WAS | -- | 31% | 38% | -- | 31% | 38% | -- | 85% | 28% | -- | 10% | 13% |
Betting splits above are updated hourly; the data presented is an average of the public bets and public money from multiple North American and global sportsbooks.
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 ON THE NFL & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKNO SWEAT FIRST BET UP TO $1,000!
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKGET UP TO $1,250 ON CAESARS FOR ANY NFL BET
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKFIRST NFL BET OFFER: UP TO $1,000 PAID BACK
Once we get into the regular season, we will feature some key insights for the week here as well. There just isn’t enough money bet on the preseason to form any real insights. The betting splits are so volatile with so little being bet.
Public’s NFL Betting Record
| Week | Public’s Record Against the Spread |
|---|---|
| Super Bowl | 1-0 |
| Conference Championships | 0-2 |
| Divisional Round | 1-3 |
| Wild Card | 3-3 |
| Week 18 | 6-10 |
| Week 17 | 5-7-1 |
| Week 16 | 6-10 |
| Week 15 | 8-7 |
| Week 14 | 7-6 |
| Week 13 | 8-7 |
| Week 12 | 8-7 |
| Week 11 | 8-5-1 |
| Week 10 | 7-7 |
| Week 9 | 6-5-2 |
| Week 8 | 8-7 |
| Week 7 | 7-7 |
| Week 6 | 4-10 |
| Week 5 | 5-10-1 |
| Week 4 | 7-7-1 |
| Week 3 | 6-9-1 |
| Week 2 | 5-10-1 |
| Week 1 | 6-10 |
| 2022-23 TOTAL | 122-149-8 |
| 2021-22 TOTAL | 140-137-4 |
After we kickoff the 2023-24 NFL regular season, I will update the table above to start tracking the public’s ATS record for the current season. For now, you can look at how the public fared last season.
Here are some quick stats looking back to the public’s 2022-23 record against the spread:
- Went 6-10 against the spread in Week 1
- Worst week was Week 6 (4-10 ATS)
- First winning week against the spread didn’t come until Week 8 (8-7)
- Best week was Week 11 (8-5-1 ATS)
What Are NFL Betting Trends?
Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. To get the biggest bonuses, be sure to check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code prior to kick-off.
What are Money Percentages?
You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.
What Are Bet Percentages?
Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.
How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?
As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.
For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.
A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.
If you’re on the hunt for new sportsbooks and are hungry for irresistible welcome offers, we’ve got some recommendations. Utilizing the primary Bet365 bonus code can unlock a fantastic promotion upon registration: Bet $1 and Get $200 in Bonus Bets. Taking advantage of boosted odds specials can enhance your NFL wagers, and with a FanDuel promo code, you can elevate your potential winnings.
Starting your NFL betting journey with a BetMGM promo code is an ideal way to experience the ‘King of Sportsbooks’. You may have noticed numerous advertisements for DraftKings during NFL games, but don’t disregard them, as claiming a DraftKings promo code can greatly contribute to your success as a bettor.
NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ
Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?
The answer changes from season to season. In 2021, betting against the public resulted in a winning record (140-137-4) but because of the juice (usually -110) it was not profitable. With a standard -110 vig, bettors need to win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit. Last year, betting against the public only resulted in a 50.5% win rate.
What percentage of NFL favorites cover the spread?
Over the past ten seasons, favorites have only covered 48.2% of the time.
What is the biggest trend in NFL betting?
Looking for something to follow blindly? SBD's NFL score predictor is 51-36-3 ATS all-time and is up 23.38 units on upset picks, i.e. when it predicts the betting underdog will win straight-up. To see its projections, go to SBD's NFL odds page, find the matchup you're interested in, and click FULL GAME STATS. The ensuing page will display the predicted score.
- DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
GET $1,050 IN BONUSES!
- CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
FIRST BET ON CAESARS UP TO $1,250 + 1,000 TIER CREDITS AND 1,000 REWARD CREDITS®
- FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
NO SWEAT FIRST BET UP TO $1,000!
- BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
FIRST BET OFFER: UP TO $1,000 PAID BACK